Tropical Weather Reports

in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA

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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Aug 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Storm Fernand: Tropical Storm Fernand is centered near 27.2N 61.4W at 23/2100 UTC or 350 nm SSE of Bermuda, moving N at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 27N to 30N between 57W and 63W. Peak seas to 12 ft are occurring from 26N to 28N between 59.5W and 61.5W. A north- northeastward motion at a gradually increasing forward speed is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northeast. On the forecast track, Fernand should move well east of Bermuda and across the open waters of the subtropical North Atlantic. Fernand will move to 29.0N 61.0W Sun morning, 31.4N 60.3W Sun afternoon, 33.6N 59.5W Mon morning, 35.8N 58.5W Mon afternoon, 38.2N 56.7W Tue morning, and 41.3N 54.0W Tue afternoon. Fernand will become extratropical as it moves to 47.0N 44.0W Wed afternoon.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms have increased and are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system could become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves quickly westward at about 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Windward and Leeward Islands late on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday. The system is expected to reach the central Caribbean on Tuesday, where conditions are expected to become less favorable for additional development. There is a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fernand NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

TROPICAL WAVES

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, passing through the western Cabo Verde Islands, from 22N southward. The wave is moving westward around 5 kt. No significant convection is noted with the tropical wave at this time.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned to along 50W, from 22N southward through a 1011 mb low (AL99) near 11.5N50W. AL99 has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through the next 48 hours. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N to 15N between 50W and 56W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from 19N southward, and moving westward around 15 to 20 kt. Visible satellite imagery indicates that the wave envelope is large and extends across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and extends southwestward to a 1011 mb low (AL99) near 11.5N50W. Convection is limited to the area near AL99 and is described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above.

GULF OF AMERICA

A stationary front persists across the northern Gulf Coast, and continues to produce scattered moderate convection across the central and northern Gulf waters north of 23N. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds are noted north of the Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail across the rest of the Gulf, with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine conditions. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will remain active across the northern Gulf through the weekend as an old front meanders along the north Gulf coastal waters and slowly dissipates. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the south-central Gulf each afternoon through evening this weekend into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are occurring across much of the Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between low pressure over northern Colombia and a 1017 mb high centered east of the Bahamas. Fresh E to NE winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail across the central and eastern basin, with 2 to 4 ft seas in the northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally rough seas will return to the south-central Caribbean this evening through Sun as central Atlantic high pressure builds W-SW across the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will then expand across most of central and eastern portions, and the Windward Passage, Sun night through Wed as a strong tropical wave moves through the basin. Locally heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds, and squalls and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this tropical wave across east and central portions Sun evening through late Wed. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras at night through Tue. NW to N swell will build across the tropical Atlantic waters and move through the Atlantic Passages tonight through early Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on Tropical Storm Fernand and Invest Area AL99. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Residual northerly swell from Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin continues to affect parts of the western and central Atlantic. 8-13 ft seas, with periods of 12-14 seconds, are analyzed north of a line from 31N40W to 25N55W to 22N68W. Please note the locally different sea state within this area near Tropical Storm Fernand, which is described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. In the deep tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades are analyzed south of 20N and west of 35W. Light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters.

For the forecast, large northerly swell generated by extratropical cyclone Erin will continue to affect the W Atlantic waters through the next few days. Weak high pressure has developed along 70W, to the east of the central Bahamas. Newly formed Tropical Storm Fernand is located at 27.2N 61.4W at 2100 UTC, moving N at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt gusts to 45 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Fernand will move N-NE and slowly strengthen before exiting the area north of 31N Sun afternoon. Central Atlantic high pressure will then build W-SW and into the NW Bahamas Mon through Wed. A slow moving cold front will move off the SE U.S. into the NW waters Wed through Thu.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services

Summary for Tropical Storm Fernand

As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 23

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN...

  • Location: 27.2, -61.4
  • Max sustained: 40 mph
  • Moving: N at 15 mph
  • Min pressure: 1010 mb