Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Periods of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will occur over the southern Caribbean and into Nicaragua and Costa Rica through at least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast to observe the highest amounts of rain tonight into Tuesday, while northeastern Nicaragua is expected to observe its rainfall maxima on Wednesday. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more information.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 17N, moving westward around 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the wave axis.
A tropical wave has been relocated along 61W based on satellite and precipitable water imagery. The wave is moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident south of 12N and between 55W and 63W, also affecting the Windward Islands. The wave is also enhancing convection over NE South America.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 18N, moving quickly westward around 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found south of 18N and between 66W and 73W.
Another central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 18N, moving westward around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident across the SW Caribbean. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W, then continuing southwestward to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N31W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 12N and east of 22W. Similar convection is seen south of 08N and west of 45W.
Divergence aloft is supporting popcorn convection over the northern half of the Gulf waters, while diurnal heating is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the NE and northern Gulf coast and western Yucatan and surrounding waters. The subtropical ridge extends into the Gulf of America. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft (1-1.5 m). The satellite-derived wind data also captured fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the SE Gulf, especially in the Florida Straits. Seas are 4-6 ft (1.5-2 m) in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, a ridge extending from the SW N Atlantic waters will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sat night. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere through Sat night.
Diurnal heating supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across eastern Yucatan, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Please see the Tropical Waves section for more detail on the convection associated with these features. High pressure to the north of the islands continues to sustain fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds over much of the basin. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas of 4-7 ft (1.5-2.5 m) are noted in the central and eastern Caribbean, Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the east and central Caribbean through the week. Winds are expected to reach near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela by Thu night. Moderate to rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. By late this week, winds may increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure currently located a few hundred miles offshore of Central America which has the potential of tropical cyclone formation.
A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1020 mb gale low pressure (Invest 90L) located north of the forecast area near 35N53W to the SE Bahamas. Isolated to scattered showers are evident on satellite imagery north of 22N and between 55W and 70W. The rest of the basin is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge that supports moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 25N and west of 45W. Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft (1.5-3 m). In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas are noted north of 18N and east of 25W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are prevalent between 25W and 45W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough persist over the forecast waters, and extends southwestward from 31N56W to the central Bahamas. The trough will dissipate tonight into Tue, and the Atlantic high pressure will then extend westward towards the Florida peninsula. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong E winds are expected N of Hispaniola Wed through Fri.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services