Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Apr 29 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
The monsoon trough axis enters the far eastern Atlantic through the coast of southern Mauritania near 17N16W, and continues south-southwestward to near 107N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N24W to the Equator at 30W and to south of the Equator to the coast of Brazil near 05S36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of 04N 35W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 21W-35W, and from the Equator to 05N between 40W-45W.
GULF OF AMERICA High pressure stretches from offshore the Mid-Atlantic states southward into the Gulf. Mostly dry and stable conditions remain in place over the basin, except in the far northwest section where upper-level clouds moving east-northeast are seen. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are across the basin, except for fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the eastern and central Bay of Campeche near the diurnal thermal trough. Seas are in the range of 3 to 6 ft per latest buoy observations and in overnight altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the basin through the end of the week supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and moderate seas across the northeastern and north-central Gulf. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds each evening over the eastern and central Bay of Campeche through the forecast period due to local effects related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida at night through Wed night. Southeast winds and seas will increase over the western and central Gulf through Wed night before diminishing Thu afternoon.
A broad deep-layer trough is over the western Atlantic reaching southward to the north-central Caribbean. Divergent southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean coastal waters from northwest Colombia to northern Costa Rica. Farther east, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is producing scattered passing showers across much of the northeastern Caribbean and adjacent islands east of 70W. Drier conditions are noted over the northwestern Caribbean, under the influence of the northern flow aloft west of the upper trough. At the surface, the wind flow pattern is being driven by relatively high pressure that is present north of the area and that is centered offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast, and the usual low pressure found off Colombia. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate easterly flow across the basin along with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for lower seas of 2 to 4 ft south of 15N between 64W and 68W and seas of 3 to 5 ft over the west-central section. Fresh to strong northeast winds are in the lee of Cuba, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Fresh northeast winds are in the Windward Passage along with seas of 5 to 6 ft.
For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh to strong winds at night in the Windward Passage and south of Cuba, through at least Thu night, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere.
A cold front is analyzed from 31N57W to 26N70W to 26N78W. To its southeast, a trough persists along a location from just north of Puerto Rico, north-northeastward to near 27N62W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are east of the trough to near 47W, and also north of 27N between 52W and the cold front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the front between 60W and 62W and 73W and 75W. Fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft seas are north of the front. Gentle to moderate northeast winds along with seas of 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere to the west of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail between the trough and 50W. East of 45W, the synoptic pattern is dominated by strong high pressure of 1030 mb centered well north of the area, with its related gradient supporting fresh trades and 6 to 8 ft seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near 31N56W to 26N63W to the central Bahamas by early this afternoon. This front is forecast to stall on Wed from near 31N53W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Fresh northeast winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front. Building high pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters west of 65W for remainder of the week. A cold front may approach the southeastern U.S. coast late on Sat.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services