Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Dec 13 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
East Atlantic Gale Warnings: MeteoFrance has issued Gale Warnings for their MADEIRA and CANARIAS Marine Zones. For Madeira, the warning is valid through 13/21Z, and for Canarias, the warning is valid through 14/00Z. Please visit website: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more information.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to 05N17.5W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17.5W to 01N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 11N east of 29W.
A surface trough has been analyzed over the central Bay of Campeche to 24N94W, and locally fresh E to NE winds are noted over the eastern Bay through the Campeche Bank. Elsewhere, a 1021 mb high centered over northern Florida extends ridging through the Gulf, supporting moderate or weaker winds over much of the basin. Locally fresh E to NE winds, observed on recent scatterometer data, are noted through the Florida Straits as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between the ridge and a surface trough over the northwestern Caribbean. Seas of 1 to 2 ft are observed over the northern and northeastern basin via recent buoy data, with 2 to 4 ft seas noted in the southern and western Gulf.
For the forecast, weak high pressure located over north Florida and the adjacent Atlantic will slide northeastward and into the NW Atlantic through Sat to produce moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds across the S and W Gulf. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the basin through Sat. The next cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf on Sun morning, bringing strong N to NE winds and building seas behind the front. The front is expected to reach the south-central Gulf along 24N/25N by Mon morning, and move south of the basin Mon night.
Widespread fresh trade winds are noted over much of the Caribbean, as a tight pressure gradient prevails between a 1007 mb low over the south-central Caribbean, a surface trough over the northwestern basin and ridging to the north. Recent scatterometer satellite data show ongoing strong winds in the south-central basin, with locally near-gale force winds noted in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are occurring in the central and west-central basin to the west of the strongest winds, with 6 to 8 ft seas noted in the eastern Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft in the northwestern basin. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas, as noted via recent altimeter data, prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the passages.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected over the central Caribbean through Sun morning due to the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and a modest western Atlantic ridge. Winds will pulse to near gale-force at night offshore of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will prevail over the Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Mon. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean early Mon, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue evening, then begin to stall and weaken.
Please see the Special Features section above for more information about the Gale warning in effect over the Eastern Atlantic.
A cold front extends from 31N56W to 24N70W, where it transitions to a stationary front that continues through the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and ahead of the cold front, north of 26N between 53W and 62W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted via scatterometer data ahead of the front, while gentle to moderate winds prevail to the north. A NW swell associated with this cold front is supporting 8 to 10 ft seas north of 28N between 52W and 70W. Farther west, a 1021 mb high centered near 30N77W extends ridging over the northwest tropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this high and the aforementioned cold and stationary fronts is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds north of the Lesser Antilles and through the Bahamas. Elsewhere, a cold front extends from 31N10.5W through northwestern Africa to 22N20W to 25N40W, and strong to gale force winds and 10 to 20 ft seas prevail north of the front. Widespread fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas prevail south of 25N.
For the forecast, large NW swell is expected north of 28N between 70W and the aforementioned cold and stationary fronts through Sat morning as the north portion of front drifts eastward. The front is forecast to become stationary Sat, then lift northward while dissipating. The next strong cold front is slated to move off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with strong to near gale-force winds and quickly building seas expected behind the front. The front is forecast to reach from just E of Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Mon morning, and from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba Tue morning.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services